According to how nations’ scientific output have increased during the period 2003-2010 (top 50), we propose the following forecasting exercise (PDF), we will use this data to obtain a prediction not necessarily realistic, but anyhow suggestive, of the scientific output scenario for 2018.
Growth rate (percentage) and Total Output by country during the period 2003-2010 (click on the graph to access the table with all the data of this forecasting exercise)
Source: SCOPUS. Elaboration: SCImago
Félix de Moya Anegón is Research Professor at the Institute of Public Goods and Policies (IPP) from the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), his academic interests include scientometrics, bibliometrics, research evaluation and science policy; he has published around 100 papers in these fields. He is SCImago Research Group‘s main researcher, where he has led renowned bibliometic projects including Scimago Journal & Country Rank, Scimago Institution Rankings and The Atlas of Science. Prof. De Moya is also advisor for Science Policy issues for national organizations of science and technology and research institutions around the world.